Esse texto é de autoria de Angie Setzer, consultora de Grãos da Marex US.

O Footnotes é postado todo sábado no portal Brz Report (plataforma da Agrinvest onde você encontra basis, trades, fluxo das commodities, preços do mercado físico, cobertura da China e muito mais).

The much-anticipated update from the USDA was relatively bearish across the board. Corn yields came in higher than the pre-report trade estimates by 2 bushels to the acre, while soybean yields were in line with published estimates. Unfortunately, both of which felt much higher than what the trade was actually anticipating.

For wheat, production was increased as indicated in the production update provided by NASS in September, with demand left unchanged. Many had assumed the large export book seen to start the year would help to soak up some of the extra supplies projected, but the World Ag Outlook Board disagreed.

On the global front, changes were minor for corn. Soybeans saw some larger than expected changes in ending stocks but much of that was driven by a more aggressive export projection for Argentina and Brazil both. Wheat ending stocks jumped more than expected as the USDA played around with export and production figures for several of the world’s largest exporters. An increase to the Argentina crop was projected as well, with a 1 mmt bump in expected exports seen out of both them and Australia.

In addition to the WASDE figures providing a heavier outlook than many were expecting, the export flash sale release was far more subdued than anticipated as well. Corn saw the bulk of flash purchases—which are purchases greater than 100,000 metric tons in one day—with wheat and soybeans seeing limited business being done. Soybeans did have a couple different flash sales for China, confirming rumors of purchases but with less than 1 mmt combined sold to China and Unknown over the shutdown, the volume was disappointing.

The markets reacted as expected, with corn, wheat and soybeans all down double digits at the close. Corn gave back much of what it had gained this week, wheat returned back to October 30^th lows and soybeans managed to keep a nickel of what they had gained this week when the dust settled.

Now that the numbers are out, I want to take a look at what’s most likely to happen next in the three main commodities as we head into year end.

Continue reading in the: Friday Footnotes