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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 19/12/2024 08:56
Once again rates in Brazil jumped. The interest rate Jan27 hit all time high (16%) – increasing the FX inclination and spot rate. Tradings are originating corn for August shipment in Mato Grosso at over BRL 50 per sack, with basis equivalent to +40-45U FOB Barcarena—bids FOB Barca/Itaqui at +62U for LH August. The soybean market for 2026 is seeing some activity. Trades reported in the interior and more trades in the paper market (March 2026). Soybean oil and meal premiums, and flat price, in Arg and Brazil continue to lose ground. In Brazil crushers are more active, but most of them are opting to wait for the harvest pressure. Nevertheless, crush margins are good and the market is pricing an abundant supply of products and more competition with the US. Corn ethanol in Brazil will reach 1/3 of ethanol supply in 2025. Ethanol experts argue there is room for higher share, as sugar plants are more inclined to increase sugar production and the ethanol mandate will increase. It was a very slow overnight in CFR China. Rumors of March and May, but lack of details. This week a total of 18 cargoes were reported so far, slower than Oct and Nov weekly average but seasonal. Smeal sales in China are also slow - Smeal daily sales this week are at 570k tons (4 days), 37% lower than last week. Smeal basis in Guangdong for JJAS window keep diving (-90 RMB/t over DCE Sep). The daily hog slaughter of large scale operations hit the highest level since February – 163.7k heads.
Soybean Paper MKT – Dec 18
(daily variation)
Feb +35sh (unch) vs ??
Mch +0sh (unch) vs -5sh (-2)
Apr +0sk (unch) ?? vs -5sk (unch)
May +30sk (+5) vs +15sk (-5)
Jun +45sn (+5) vs +20sn (-5)
Jul ?? vs +30sn (+5)
Feb26 ?? vs -20sh (+5)
Mch26 -5sh (+5) vs -25sh (+5)
Apr-May26 ?? vs -30sk (unch)
Trades: Apr at -5sk (same as ystd) and Mar26 at -19/-18/-17/-15/-10sh26
Cargo market (Santos)
FH Feb +60sh vs ??
LH Feb +40sh vs ??
FH Apr ?? vs -10sh
LH May ?? vs +20sk (-2)
2
5
5,00
