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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 11/07/2024 08:50
Farmer selling in Brazil remains very thin. For soybeans, only 500,000 tons for both crops (60/40) were sold this week, whereas last week the farmer selling was close to 4.5 million tons combined. Crushers in Brazil are the most aggressive. The crush margin selling soybean oil and meal to the domestic market is sound but is poor based on FOB levels. The total nomination of beans, oil, and meal is falling, while corn is improving. Based on the crushers' small soybean coverage and the falling nominations, the crush is lower than last year. The corn replacement remains expensive, pushing FOB levels up in Brazil. However, Argentine (UPR) traded for August cheaper than Brazil, and South Korea passed the tender with the lowest offer at $241.99/ton, LH Nov delivery. There are rumors that Brazil has sold corn with China docs included. So far, there are only two vessels nominated to China in Brz. Argentine tdd soybean meal at -8Q for August, firmer than last week (tdd at -12Q on Friday), and traded soybean oil for August at -450Q, also firmer (tdd at -640Q on Friday). Even so, meal and oil flat prices are lower, and the crush margin is deteriorating. The FX spread in Argentina keeps moving up, reaching 50%. Farmer selling in Argentina is also depressed. So, who is selling? Only MM so far.
Soybean Paper MKT – July 10
*(daily variation)
Jul 24 ?? vs +33sq (-2)
Aug 24 +55sq (+5) vs +38sq (-2)
Sep 24 ?? vs +67su (no reference)
Feb 25 +15 (+5) vs -10sh (+5)
Mch 25 -20sh (unch) vs -31sh (+4)
Apr 25 -25sk (unch) vs -35sk (unch)
May 25 ?? vs -30sk (unch)
Jun 25 ?? vs -30sn (no reference)
Jul 25 ?? vs -25sn (no reference)
Trades: Jul24 tdd at +40sq and +38sq
Cargo Market (Santos/Tuba):
FH Aug24 +55sq vs ??
FH Feb25 ?? vs -5sh
FH Mch25 ?? vs -20sh (+5)
LH Mch25 ?? vs -25sh (unch)
FH Apr25 +0sk vs -30sk (unch)
LH Apr25 ?? vs -30sk (unch)
3
4
5,00
