In our review for January 2024, we estimate the Brazilian soybean production for the 2023/2024 season to come in at 149.69 million tons compared to 152.50 MMT in last month's report, a reduction of 2.81 million tons. The continued high temperatures have impacted crops in the states of Santa Catarina, Paraná, and São Paulo – crops that were previously unaffected by climatic adversities in these states. Additionally, attention should be paid to the weather in the coming weeks for the state of Rio Grande do Sul – more rain is expected to result in a smaller soybean planting area in this state.

Soybean crop 2023/2024 survey (as of Jan 11, 2024):

Planting area: 44.993 million hectares
Expected productivity: 3,327 kg per hectare (55.45 bushels per hectare)
Production: 149.69 million tons (MMT)
Table 1 – Estimates of Brazilian soybean production for the 2023/2024 season

Highlights:
Mato Grosso
Planted area: 12.132 million hectares (IMEA); productivity: 3,018 kg per hectare (50.31 bushels per hectare); production: 36.62 MMT – a decrease of 8.98 MMT or 20% compared to initial estimates.

Rio Grande do Sul
Planted area: 6.473 million hectares; productivity: 3,237 kg per hectare (53.95 bushels per hectare); production: 20.95 MMT, an increase of 7.93 MMT compared to the previous season.

Paraná
Planted area: 5.832 million hectares (DERAL); productivity: 3,667 kg per hectare (61.12 bushels per hectare); production: 21.38 MMT, a 5% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Goiás
Planted area: 4.602 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,510 kg per hectare (58.50 bushels per hectare); production: 16.15 MMT, a 10% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Mato Grosso do Sul
Planted area: 4.002 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,462 kg per hectare (57.71 bushels per hectare); production: 13.85 MMT, a 7% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Bahia
Planted area: 2.000 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,256 kg per hectare (54.27 bushels per hectare); production: 6.51 MMT, a 19% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Maranhão
Planted area: 1.182 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,163 kg per hectare (52.71 bushels per hectare); production: 3.74 MMT, a 10% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Piauí
Planted area: 1.072 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,271 kg per hectare (54.51 bushels per hectare); production: 3.51 MMT, a 10% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Tocantins
Planted area: 1.470 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,263 kg per hectare (54.38 bushels per hectare); production: 4.79 MMT, a 10% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Pará
Planted area: 1.043 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,063 kg per hectare (51.05 bushels per hectare); production: 3.19 MMT, in line with initial estimates.

Minas Gerais
Planted area: 2.223 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,844 kg per hectare (64.07 bushels per hectare); production: 8.54 MMT, in line with initial estimates.

São Paulo
Planted area: 1.297 million hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,598 kg per hectare (59.96 bushels per hectare); production: 4.66 MMT, a 5% decrease compared to initial estimates.

Santa Catarina
Planted area: 795,000 hectares (CONAB); productivity: 3,840 kg per hectare (63.99 bushels per hectare); production: 3.05 MMT, a 2% decrease compared to initial estimates.