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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Brazil Market Report
Publicado em: 30/05/2023 08:23
Brz Soybean Market: FOB market quiet ystd. Rumors of trade at -70n for June shipment, which is lower than the last trade at -53n traded on last Tuesday. For July offers at -20n and bid at -40n. Last week July shipment oscillate between -15n till -35n.
Last week Farmer selling reached 2.8 Mi tons, bringing the national Farmer Selling to 58% - there is still 65 Mi tons to be sold. Domestic crushers still have to buy 20-22 Mi tons till the end of the year and China 15-18 Mi tons till the end of September.
Logistics: Soybean shipments in Brz ports in May, 20 working days, lost the rhythm compared to April. The daily average dropped from 690 thousand tons to 630 thousand. There is still 2.9 Mi tons of new nominations, but only 3 working days till the end of the month. Keeping the daily pace, May shipments will reach 14.5 Mi tons and 48 Mi tons YTD – the program is 3.8 Mi tons behind the schedule to reach 95 Mi tons till the end of December.
CFR Market: The last traded reported on CFR was last Friday – tdd July at +70n, way below the last week highs at +85n. In general, the offers indications for July are weaker compared to last Friday.
Soybeans CFR China (Brazil)
July 85/75n vs70n – Rumors at +70n (Friday)
August 110/100n vs
Feb 24 125/119h vs ??
Mar 24 88/85h vs ??
Apr 24 82/80k vs ?? - Traded at +80k (Thursday)
Soybeans CFR China (USG) – Friday´s levels
Oct 245x vs
Nov 235x vs
Dec 235f vs
Soybeans CFR China (PNW)
Oct 257/248x vs
Nov 253x
DCE: In China, the pressure on the exchange rate continues. The exchange rate is now at 7.10 against the dollar, the highest level since November when it reached 7.30. This was before the zero-Covid reversal. The spread between the 2-year bond yields of Chinese and American bonds stands at -2.33%. At the DCE, soybean meal futures fell by 1.55%, soybean oil by 2.3%, and live hogs by over 2%.
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