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Por: Angie Setzer
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 11/04/2026 09:25
Esse texto é de autoria de Angie Setzer, consultora de Grãos da Marex US.
O Footnotes é postado todo sábado no portal Brz Report (plataforma da Agrinvest onde você encontra basis, trades, fluxo das commodities, preços do mercado físico, cobertura da China e muito mais).
Corn and wheat prices returned to their pre-war levels this week. In doing so, December corn is now around 26 cents off its recent high, while July wheat is nearly 70 cents below its peak. Soybeans have fared quite a bit better all things considered, with supportive biofuel news released late March helping to support crush margins and fund length.
A belief that the Middle East situation will soon be resolved is behind much of the recent sell-off. That optimism has been reinforced by good weather across much of Brazil’s Safrinha crop, expectations of a 60+ mmt corn crop out of Argentina, China actively working to avoid importing U.S. corn and a surprisingly quick build up of fund length that left the market vulnerable to long liquidation. Together, those factors have been enough to push prices back to where they started.
For wheat, more moisture in the forecast where the dryness has been the greatest across the country helped usher in some selling. A continued belief that the world is awash in wheat with another massive Northern Hemisphere crop on its way is keeping much of the bearish narrative alive.
For me, I’m not sure yet that I am comfortable with that outlook. Rising fuel and fertilizer costs are squeezing an already cash-strapped global ag economy. And while the U.S. may be partially isolated from the worst of the war’s effects this production cycle, the problems I see around the world could become increasingly difficult to ignore. Especially if prices remain at levels low enough to sustain record demand across nearly every sector while actively discouraging the production we are likely going to need.
This week, I want to dig into the real impact of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global feed grain production and why I think we may be sleeping on a potentially meaningful squeeze.
Continue reading in the: Friday Footnotes
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