Esse texto é de autoria de Angie Setzer, consultora de Grãos da Marex US.

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With Christmas just days away, I thought it would be fitting to give this week’s write-up a bit of a festive flair.

Looking at the price action in corn, soybeans, and wheat this year made me think about Scrooge, A Christmas Carol, and what each market would hear if visited by the ghosts of Christmas Past, Present and Future.

Corn

Corn’s visit from the Past would highlight how it started the year with such promise and opportunity only to falter around the end of February, and never really look back.

Corn’s problems this past year first came from uncertainty over whether port fees would derail incredible export demand. Unfortunately, by the time we realized crop shipments would not be affected, we already knew acres would be more than adequate.

What was even most interesting when looking back on corn’s year, is the near complete lack of concern over weather during the growing season. Significant rain fell throughout much of June and into July across large swaths of the Western Corn Belt, with Iowa seeing near record amounts in some places. The adage “rain makes grain” was on repeat for much of the summer, with many ignoring talk of disease and maintaining record harvest estimates well beyond the end of the season.

Corn’s visit with the Past would highlight the thoughts of big production but would also question the idea that demand needs to be reduced, especially when looking at the current pace of exports and ethanol usage. Overall, much like the farmer this year, the Past would be disappointed with corn’s inability to live up to its potential.

The Ghost of Christmas Present would look bored and unexcited when meeting corn for the first time. This is because at present, there is little in the way of definitive developments immediately on their way for corn. While the crop felt smaller than expectations ahead of harvest and NASS’s projections, minimal changes in the November report left some skeptical that we will see a big adjustment next month.

Until we know more about what the USDA is using for a final production figure, it is likely prices will remain somewhat stagnant. This keeps the visit by the Present short and sweet, welcoming in the Ghost of Christmas Future.

Looking at corn’s future, it all hinges on what the USDA has to say on 2025 yields. Solid demand across all sectors will make the overall supply pie the driver in the short term. As I had mentioned before, it did not feel as though we had a crop come off nearly as large as the USDA is predicting across much of the Corn Belt. We did have record crops though across the Plains states, stretching from Texas up into South Dakota, likely helping to support overall production.

On the demand front, ethanol and exports are meeting expectations. Export sales are maintaining a +10 mmt pace versus a year ago, with sales sitting at a record high level for this time of year by a long shot. Ethanol demand started a bit slower than we would like to see but has picked up relatively quickly, with ethanol grind setting new high records twice so far this year. Between 45z carbon credits and ethanol exports, we should continue to see a strong pace. Feed and residual is where the big questions lie, with many adamant that the USDA is overstating demand.

Crop size is a big determinant of feed and residual, though there is no solid formula for such that the USDA uses. With this in mind, I feel like the USDA will likely keep feed and residual usage elevated if the crop stays as large as it is. At the same time though, a drop in production will likely be mostly offset by a reduction in feed and residual, leaving us to focus on whether China shows up and begins to buy US corn in size.

In addition to how old crop plays out, I am watching the acreage side of things for new crop. If prices remain flat into the spring, we will likely be battling with another round of big acres, potentially keeping a lid on those new crop opportunities. That, however, is a story best discussed with more confidence in a couple of months.

Continue reading in the: Friday Footnotes