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USDA
Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 17/12/2024 08:23
The Brz real continues to be the worst performing currency this month. Yesterday BRL/USD made new highs at 6.148. Lula appeared on a weekly TV show on Sunday. After two brain drainages, Lula made a statement reaffirming his capacity to handle government duties. He emphasized the need for a central bank aligned with the needs of the Brazilian population, claiming that "the only problem is our interest rate being above 10%." The bonds market in Brazil is dysfunctional – “gringos” keep selling bonds. Treasury Notes 2031 yields shot up again. Even with higher FX, tradings are eroding domestic basis. The result is a standstill of flat price and stagnant farmer selling, beans and corn. Sino booked a few cargoes in USG for March and April this overnight. Brazil sold Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar, Mar-Apr and May between last Friday and yesterday. Smeal daily sales in China this week are 286k tons (2 days), 45% lower than last week. The corn FOB market in Brazil started this week with limited activity. There is some interest in the old crop for Jan-Feb shipment, but most exporters have wrapped up their programs. For the 2025 safrinha, the market is more active. Sellers for Aug-Sep at 70u and buyers at lows 60's. The replacement cost for safrinha is close to 60’s in the North – lower for Barcarena, but freight cost is still a wild card.
Soybean Paper MKT – Dec 16
(daily variation)
Feb +40sh (unch) vs +20sh (-7)
Mch +2sh (-3) vs -10sh (-10)
Apr +2sk (-1) ?? vs -10sk (unch)
May +30sk (+2) vs +10sk (-10)
Jun +40sn (-2) vs +20sn (-10)
Feb26 -10sh vs -30sh (-10)
Mch26 -10sh (unch) vs -30sh (unch)
Apr26 -10sk (unch) vs ??
Apr-May26 ?? vs -35sk
Trades: No reports
Cargo market (Santos)
FH Feb +60sh vs ??
10-25 Feb +40sh vs ??
FH Mar +20sh vs ??
LH Mar +15sh vs ??
FH Apr +20sk vs ??
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