Soja
Equipe Agrinvest 
407
1
PSF: 16_12_2024
Milho
Macro
Algodão
Trigo
Outros Ativos
Clima
Áudios
Vídeos
Seções
Relatórios
Cotações
Fertilizantes
Defensivos
USDA
Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 28/11/2024 08:50
FX in Brz hit new highs of 5.938, and will probably will test the psychological number of 6.0 per USD. The interest rate curve in Brazil is steepening, due to the very slow progress and bumpy road to approving the Gov. expense cut for 2025. Lots of noise is circulating: 1) Gov needs to pass some very "sensitive" Bills in Congress, like freezing the minimum wage and Army income (both will impact public servants - very unpopular bills); 2) The opposition is trying to include an increase in the income threshold for income tax (the tax exemption will be almost equal to the expense cut). After the market, the FM tried to explain the Mart Math, pouring gas onto the fire – He couldn’t explain how and when the expenses cut will work to put a cap on the Debt upward trajectory. In the CME, BRL is trading at 6.98. The stressed FX curve is helping exporters. Corn farmer selling for 2025 safrinha is moving faster than beans. The soybean-corn ratio dropped in all regions, spot and for 2025. Sino booked two soybean cargoes out of the US this night. Rumors of 1-2 cargoes for new crop Brz at lower levels. Maps are showing good rains and good coverage for all SAM regions. Smeal premiums in Arg and Brz closed firmer for Dec and Jan. Smeal sales in China lost steam this week – 622k tons vs 1.78 Mi tons LW (4 days).
Soybean Paper MKT – Nov 27
(daily variation)
Feb +75sh (unch) vs +57sh (-3)
LH Feb +52sh (-3) vs ??
Mch +36sh (-9) vs +30sh (unch)
Apr +40sk (unch) vs +25sk (-5)
Apr-May +50sk (unch) vs +32sk (-5)
May +60sk (unch) vs +40sk (-5)
Jun +57sn (-6) vs +50sn (unch)
JJ +77sn vs +61sn (+6)
Jul ?? vs +61sn (+1)
Apr26 ?? vs -15sk
Trades: Mar at +32sh and May at +47sk
2
5,00
