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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 25/07/2024 09:04
Soybean premiums FOB Paranaguá and CFR China initially surged 30 to 40 cents per bushel in just a few days. However, the latest trades indicate a decrease of 10-15 cents. Soybean Paper Paguá March traded on Monday at +15sh and yesterday at even. On CFR, trades reported today at +112sh, 13 cents below than Friday. Brokers from Agrinvest report that there is a large supply of positions for the new crop on Fob, primarily for March and April, where origination has progressed well recently. Demand from Chinese crushers appears to have been impacted by the deteriorating crush margins for both crops — soy meal stocks at Chinese ports grew for the 15th consecutive week. Brokers reported 02 more cargoes traded out of USG for Nov. The water level of the Madeira River has dropped again, now below 3 meters. Besides that, local sources say that logistic operators have not changed the quotas at the Porto Velho terminal. Farmer selling of corn in Argentina and Brazil is running at a good pace, adding some pressure to premium levels, especially for OND. Interest rates in Brazil continue to climb, steepening the curve. FX traders mentioned that the rise in Japan's 2Y rates was the main reason, due to a carry trade reversal. The market still expects the Brazilian government's budget, to be announced next week, to take a step forward.
Soybean Paper MKT – July 24
*(daily variation)
Aug +55sq (-5) vs ??
Sep +115sx (-5) vs +100sx (-8)
Oct +125sx vs ??
Feb +45 (-5) vs +10 (-10)
Mch +0 (-17) vs -10 (-15)
Apr +15 (-15) vs -10 (-15)
May +25 (-10) vs +5 (-10)
Jun ?? vs +5 (unch)
Jul ?? vs +10 (-5)
Trades: Aug24 at +55sq; Feb25 at +20sh; Mar25 at even; April at -2sk
Cargo Market (Santos/Tuba):
LH Aug 24 +135sx (-5) vs ??
FH Sep 24 +145sx vs ??
Full Oct 24 ?? vs +110sx
Full Nov 24 ?? vs +110sx
LH Feb 25 +40sh vs +25sh
FH Mar 25 ?? vs +5sh (-10)
LH Mar 25 ?? vs -5sh
FH Apr 25 +10sk (-5) vs ??
LH Apr 25 ?? vs +5sk
3
4
5,00
