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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 26/04/2024 08:25
BRL/USD closed higher yesterday, helping to bring more offers of soybean and corn to the market. Soybean farmer selling was 500,000 tons, taking the week to 2.5 million tons. If the market cooperates today, we could see one more week of 3 million tons. For corn, FS is close to 1.2 million tons for the week. The corn harvest in Mato Grosso just started, bringing more offers for the June and July window. Brokers confirmed that Brazil sold one cargo to Algeria for May – basis around +70 cents, out of Santarém. The corn FOB levels out of the US Gulf continue to decline, attracting more demand. However, Argentina is losing the May/June window, which may increase the competition for further months with Brazil. In Argentina, the farmer selling of corn and beans remains very slow, adding some support to soybean meal and corn premiums. Yesterday, soybean June shipment in Paranaguá was traded at +18sn and July at +36sn—for July this is a new high. For June, this level of trade calculates to +156 cents over CFR China, assuming a 10 cent spread between paper and cargo. Consequently, the indications in the CFR were firmer overnight. The crush margin in China is not bad for June and July, and local crushers are still covering May. The market estimates a total of 20-25 cargoes traded this week, including 3-5 for the new crop.
Soybean Paper MKT – April 25
*(daily variation)
May 24 +10sn (unch) vs -5sn (+5)
June 24 +20sn (unch) vs +14sn (+2)
Jul 24 +40sn (+2) vs +32sn (+3)
Aug 24 ?? vs +35sq (+3)
Feb 25 -25sh (unch) vs -40sh (+5)
Mar 25 -45sh (unch) vs -60sh (+2)
Apr 25 -40sk (unch) vs -65sk (unch)
May 25 -35sk (unch) vs -60sk (unch)
Jun 25 ?? vs -55sn (unch)
Jul 25 ?? vs -50sn (unch)
Trades (Fob Paranaguá): May24 at +15sk; July at +36sn
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