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Eduardo Vanin 
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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 20/03/2024 08:36
The Brazilian Real strengthened, closing at 5.03 yesterday - marking its highest level in four months. In anticipation, Brazil's Central Bank is expected to cut the interest rate by 0.5% today. This narrowing interest rate differential is likely to weaken the Real relative to the Dollar, creating bearish sentiments for the CBOT. Moreover, soybean farmer selling has not maintained the momentum of the past three weeks. Yesterday's sales matched Monday's, with both days seeing 450,000 tons (900,000 tons for the week). China has been active in the market, purchasing three soybean cargoes from Argentina this week and securing a few for April shipment from Brazil overnight. In the Chinese domestic market, auctions of rice, oils, and soybeans have sapped liquidity from the CFR markets. Consequently, Chinese crushers are waiting for additional soybean auctions in the upcoming week – the next auction is scheduled for March 25. In the Brazilian FOB soybean market, trades for May were reported at higher levels. When it comes to sourcing beans, the paper market is proving to be more advantageous in terms of origination margin than purchasing directly from the interior. Agrinvest brokers have noted an increase in trades of Paraguayan beans to crushers in southern Brazil this week, marking a significant shift from last year's trends.
Soybean Paper MKT – March 19
(daily variation)
Apr ?? vs -48sk (+7)
May -15sk (+5) vs -28sk (+10)
June ?? vs -15sn (+10)
Jul ?? vs +0sn (+10)
Aug ?? vs +0sq (unch)
Feb25 -25sh (+5) vs -40sh (unch)
Mar25 -50sh (unch) vs -68sh (+2)
Apr25 -60sk (unch) vs -73sk (+12)
May25 ?? vs -63sk (+15)
Trades: Trades for May at -22sk/-23sk
Cargo Market (Santos)
5-20 April 24 ?? vs -40sk
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