Morning Wrap up - China bot SB out of The US

Brz Soybean Market: Trades reported yesterday on FOB for July shipment at -23n, -20n and some at -15n (+15 on day and +30 on week). At the end of the day, the buyer paid -15n. There were no deals in August, but talk of a trade level at +55Q, up 30 for the week. The strengthening trend of soybean premiums on FOB continues to pull the CFR as well. Brokers keep talking about tradings selling at CFR China and covering with paper in Brazil, this for July.

Yesterday more trades for August shipment at CFR close to +100n. Yesterday farmer selling was weak. Agrinvest brokers speak again at 500-600k. On the inside, the flat price fell, but the basis continues to strengthen. Replacement cost CFR China remains higher than business levels. 

Yesterday I spoke with an elevator in Pará state (Northern). They said that there is no longer elevation for soybeans for the 2nd semester. Trading companies are going to receive only the sb contracts settle for May and 1H of June. After that, full steam corn program. They are talking about corn export of 6-7 million for July, which would be a record.

In CFR China trades reported overnight on Tuesday for June and JJ between +60n to +67n, then yesterday's overnight between +70n to +73n for July shipment and today trades at +85n. Offers are beginning to appear from Argentina and the US for June and July shipments, but far from business levels. Trades reported for August on Tuesday at +98-99n. They are already talking about offer indications at +110n for August. Traders in China are talking about poor margins for August and September and weak sbmeal sales. The way is to buy hand to mouth. 

This morning they say that Sinograin bought PNW for October, at +240x. They talk about 02 boats. Makes perfect sense. Last traded last week was at +235/238x CFR China out of the USG, which is equivalent to +100n, versus trades for August shipment from Brazil at +98/101n reported yesterday. For September there is no offer out of Brz, but they comment that the level would be at least 60 cents above August levels - too expensive.

Corn market: The BRL strengthens against the dollar today, with the approval of the fiscal anchor yesterday. Agrinvest brokers mentioned about an active day on the origination, 600k are the estimates, and some saying more. For the week we have 1550k total and the weight of these purchases has been felt in the OND shipments. The domestic freight remains cheaper for OND which allow exporters to build their positions for such timeframe. The recent drop in prices in Arg has put a cap for Brz, but still provide good margins for those who have elevation available.

BRAZILIAN CORN MKT
May 24th
STS/TUB
10-25Jly                        23 vs ??
AUG                               ?? vs 40
LH Sep                          45* vs ??
FH/LH Oct                   45* vs ??
OCT                              48 vs 42
10-25Oct                    60* (chin) vs ??
FH Nov                         55* vs ??
NOV                              60* vs ??

BARCA/ITAQUI
FH July                          ?? vs ??
LH Aug                         55 (chin) vs ??
LH Aug                        47 vs 30
FH Sep                         58 (chin) vs ??
LH Sep                           45 vs ??
LH Oct                           45 vs ??

SANTARÉM
FH/LH Sep (27k)         ?? vs ??

ITACO
LH July                           even vs ??

IMBITUBA
FH July                           25 vs ??

TOPOFF SFDS
20/Jul-5Aug                  65 vs ??

PAPER PAGUÁ
AUG                                27 vs ??
SEP                                 27 vs 15