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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 05/02/2024 10:54
This post is a summary of the main points discussed during the conference call this Monday with Brazilian producers and input dealers. In today's call, 108 producers from MT, MS, and PR participated, along with agronomists and consultants.
MT – Mato Grosso
MS – Mato Grosso do Sul
GO – Goiás
PR – Paraná
SP – São Paulo
+ In discussions about the safrinha corn season, producers in the northern region of Mato Grosso (MT) mentioned a potential area reduction, with one noting an ABCD trader's forecast of a 15% decrease.
+ A meteorologist on the call warned of the likelihood of an abrupt rainfall reduction from the second half of April onward, a critical period as corn in MT requires moisture until at least the end of the first half of May.
+ Soybean Farmer Selling in MT is proceeding at a sluggish pace, largely because many farmers' cash flow needs are tied to the upcoming corn planting season.
+ Crushers in MT are intensifying their purchasing efforts, offering premiums of up to 8 reais per bag over the export parity prices, equivalent to approximately 75 cents per bushel.
+ Looking ahead to the 2025 soybean season, producers are seizing the opportunity to buy potash (KCl) as the price ratio nears historical lows.
+ In MT, Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), and Goiás (GO), producers are renegotiating their debts with banks for 2025, accepting interest rates of 13% per annum, as part of a strategy to retain their soybean stocks for sale in the latter half of the year.
+ An increase in the percentage of damaged soybeans has been reported in MT, with figures reaching 60%, signaling that a significant portion of the crop may be unfit for export.
+ The soybean growth cycle in MS, Paraná (PR), and São Paulo (SP) is experiencing a reduction due to intense heat, leading to two significant consequences: unexpectedly low soybean yields and an accelerated safrinha corn planting pace, potentially resulting in expanded acreage.
+ The incidence of farmer bankruptcies is surging, with data from Serasa Experian indicating 80 filings in the first three quarters of 2023, a stark increase from 16 in 2022 and 7 in 2021.
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