Soja
Eduardo Vanin 
544
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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 24/12/2024 08:29
Rumors Sino has bought two cargoes of soybeans from Argentina for May at +130sn, equivalent to +140sk. This week, Sino also purchased 2-3 cargoes for April shipment at +200sk – USG. These purchases are part of a reserve rotation program. What volume of soybeans will Argentina have to sell? That depends on origination margins and crop size. At the current flat price and retenciones in place, profitability im Argentina for beans is very poor. Will farmer selling in Argy follow the anticipation of lower retenciones for next year and poor profitability, or anticipation of possible lower FX rate? Argentina’s weather has shifted from excellent to less favorable. Forecasts now show 15 days of dry, hotter conditions. La Niña is gaining strength, which wasn’t anticipated, adding uncertainty to corn production in Argentina – too much rain for the center of Brazil will persist. One of the major Lysine producers in China made an announcement that they will idle 100,000 tons of its production capacity due to the EU antidumping probe. The soybean flat price curve CFR China will remain inverted. Market is reducing purchases for Jan-Feb window, and increasing purchases for March onwards.
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