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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 03/05/2024 08:14
Trades reported in the CFR this overnight. Trades estimated of at least 3 cargoes for May-Jun and June. During the week around 15-20 cargoes were traded – probably more. Soybean farmer selling yesterday was strong, with producers in Mato Grosso and Goiás leading the way. The lower basis brought tradings and crushers to the game. Crush margins in Brazil are still ugly, mainly in Mato Grosso. Talks of early maintenance shutdowns are increasing in Brazil. With the rise in corn futures in Chicago we saw an improvement throughout the day in Farmer Selling, which is estimated at 300/350,000 tons. Replacement did not change much, but we could certainly see some more "excited" exporters and slightly weaker sales levels. Special attention to the floods in the South of Brazil. In the central region of Rio Grande do Sul state, there are reports of more than 500 mm of rain in the last 36 hours. Additionally, there are alerts of 300 to 400 mm for the next 48 hours. Players in Rio Grande do Sul already estimate a loss of at least 1.5 million tons in the state, resulting from rain in the remaining harvest areas. In Argentina the government will try to make the Senate vote the XXL Bill on May 16th. Local brokers comment that oilseed crush workers will most likely strike again. On Monday there will be a national strike (truck drivers and train workers included).
Soybean Paper MKT – May 02
*(daily variation)
June 24 +25sn (+5) vs +0sn (-15)
Jun-Jul 24 +35 (+5) vs +12sn (-10)
Jul 24 +45sn (+5) vs +25sn (-5)
Aug 24 ?? vs +30sq (-5)
Sep 24 ?? vs +35su (unch)
Feb 25 -20sh (+5) vs -45sh (unch)
Mar 25 -50sh (unch) vs -65sh (-5)
Apr 25 -45sk (unch) vs -70sk (-5)
May 25 -35sk (unch) vs -65sk (-10)
Jun 25 ?? vs -60sn (-10)
Jul 25 ?? vs -50sn (-5)
Trades reported: June at +30sn
Cargo Market (Santos)
LH May 24 +30sn vs ??
FH June 24 +35sn vs ?? – trades at +20sn
LH June 24 +40sn vs ??
FH Feb25 ?? vs -35sh (unch)
FH Mar25 ?? vs -60sh (unch)
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