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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 02/05/2024 08:15
There were some soybean trades reported in the CFR China – no DCE till Monday. Levels are close to the recent highs. Farmer selling in Brazil is quiet this week. The main point is the replacement cost – too expensive. Today we may see FX in Brazil dropping, following the stocks rally and Moody´s revision for Brz credit note – from stable to positive. Yesterday, our Misnistry of Economy said he expect Fitch do the same soon. Brazilian grains are becoming more expensive Fob and CFR. Special attention for the floods in the South of Brazil. Rio Grande do Sul state has been experiencing very severe floods since the weekend. The soybean harvest is 70-75%, and down south it's close to 60%, the most affected region. Soybean quality and logistics are the main concerns. Expectations were for Rio Grande port to ship at least 10 million tons of beans this year and 4 million of soybean meal. For the corn market, Tuesday was relatively active day for origination, with farmers taking advantage of the dollar rally. The replacement for the safrinha, Aug/Sep shipment, for the port of Paranaguá was between +60cu to +75cu, while up North is still a little better, between +40cu and +50cu. It is important to note that some tradings are considering maintaining Itaqui port for the soybean program until the end of August, which could overload Barcarena with corn for the beginning of the season, since it will also be busy with the soybean program. Line up for the July period might be a problem. The market remains slow for the 2025 safrinha. However, the favorable FX curve and low input costs have made barter more active in the last two weeks.
EC – 15 days
Soybean Paper MKT – April 30
*(daily variation)
June 24 +20sn (unch) vs +15sn (+9)
Jun-Jul 24 +30 (+5) vs +22sn (+8)
Jul 24 +40sn (unch) vs +30sn (+8)
Aug 24 ?? vs +35sq (+5)
Sep 24 ?? vs +30su (unch)
Feb 25 -30sh (-5) vs -45sh (unch)
Mar 25 -50sh (unch) vs -60sh (-5)
Apr 25 -45sk (unch) vs -65sk (unch)
May 25 -35sk (unch) vs -55sk (+5)
Jun 25 ?? vs -50sn (+5)
Jul 25 ?? vs -45sn (+5)
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