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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 28/02/2024 08:28
Soybean premiums Fob Paranaguá fell by 10 cents yesterday, due to better farmer selling. However, at CFR, trades were reported at the same levels compared to the previous day. Farmer selling yesterday reached 600,000 tons, a figure that doubles the daily average for this month. This heightened level of farmer selling in Brazil is now approaching 40%, assuming a crop size of 148 million tons (our estimate). Despite the drop in Fob levels, basis in the cash market in the interior remain firm. In the cash market within Mato Grosso, trades were reported between 102 BRL to 105 BRL per sack for April delivery. This pricing places Mato Grosso as the region with the highest replacement cost CFR China in Brazil. The disparity in crush margins across Brazil is also notable, with favorable margins observed in the south contrasting with poor conditions in the North. Moreover, the price curve for Paranaguá, expressed in BRL per sack, exhibits a carry condition, fostering increased barter activity for the new crop. In Mato Grosso, our analysis reveals that over 40% of the potash barter have been carried out, or the equivalent to 800,000 tons of grains.
Soybean Paper MKT – Feb 27
March -55sh vs -75sh
Apr -50sk vs -60sk (-10 vs ystd)
May -30sk vs -50sk (-10 vs ystd)
Jun -15sn vs -25sn
Jul ?? vs -15sn
Feb25 -10sh vs -30sh
Mar25 -45sh vs -50sh
Apr25 ?? vs -60sk
May25 ?? vs -60sk
2
5
5,00
