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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 27/02/2024 08:54
The flat prices for soybeans, both FOB and CFR, are witnessing a notable rebound. Trades reported in the CFR China at higher levels yesterday afternoon and into the overnight. In China, the improving margins and a resurgence in crushing activities signal strengthening demand. Conversely, in Brazil, farmer sales are on the rise. However, a significant portion of these trades are being executed as price to be fixed. This trend, while not typical, was anticipated due to the subdued margin profitability that farmers are currently facing. Corn futures in Brazil are on a downward trajectory, reflecting expectations of a larger area and favorable planting conditions – larger area compared to the expectations. The reduction in corn seed sales is currently only 6% compared to -30% during last November. Domestic traders are arbitraging the discrepancy between local basis and FOB by selling corn to domestic end-users. The safrinha planting progress is maintaining a good pace, with 70% completed in Mato Grosso and Goiás, and 50% in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Despite a rapid drop in domestic market prices, there remains a stark disconnect from the export market, with the cost of replacement maintaining a triple-digit premium over CN. Brazil's market position appears somewhat isolated, yet there's an increasing interest from traders betting on further price decline. Current offers are floating around +47/45cu, contrasting with the +40cu seen as the best bid – Fob Santos.
Soybean Paper MKT – Feb 26
March -45sh vs -80sh
Apr -45sk vs -55sk
May -30sk vs -40sk
Jun ?? vs -25sn
Jul +10sn vs -5sn
Feb25 -10sh vs -30sh
Mar25 -45sh vs -65sh
Apr25 ?? vs -75sk
May25 ?? vs -70sk
2
5
5,00
