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Por: Eduardo Vanin
Artigo, Grãos
Publicado em: 22/02/2024 08:29
Soybean FOB premiums remained unchanged from yesterday but are 20 cents lower than last week's levels. The flat prices for FOB and CFR are nearing this season's lows once again. This adjustment was observed across trades reported for April, May and June. Farmer selling is occurring, but most part of the trades are price to be fixed, posing a challenge for accurate tracking. Concurrently, the planting of the Safrinha corn is progressing at an unprecedented rate, increasing potential logistical challenges during the peak months of May and June. In the Chinese market, the demand for rape meal remains robust, exerting additional pressure on soybean meal prices and further complicating the crush margin. Despite these pressures, the soybean basis CFR remains stable, albeit significantly lower than the origination costs in Brazil. Looking towards Argentina, the values for June, July, and August present a more appealing proposition compared to Brazilian offerings and are significantly more attractive than those from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) for the upcoming new crop. The flat price curve for soybeans remains consistent with the previous year's trends, serving as an incentive for a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy. This approach, however, spells a potential disadvantage for the US 2024-25 program, as it suggests a preference for shorter-term purchases over long-term contracts.
Soybean Paper MKT – Feb 21
March -70sh vs -85sh
Apr -65sk vs -72sk
Apr-May -60sk vs -66sk
May -55sk vs -60sk
Jun -30sn vs -40sn
Jun-Jul ?? vs -30sn
Jul ?? vs -20sn
Feb25 -10sh vs -25sh
Mar25 -45sh vs -60sh
Apr25 ?? vs -75sk
May25 ?? vs -65sk
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